The Pistons have a good chance of winning the series, even though they are down three games to two. Most of the national analysis (and some of the local analysis) of the Pistons/Knicks series misses what is happening in the series.
In the fourth quarter of the series’ first game, the Pistons’ inexperience in the playoffs showed through, and the Knicks dominated. Apart from that quarter of basketball, the Knicks and the Pistons have played evenly. If the correct foul had been called on Hart at the end of game four, the Pistons would be ahead in the series. I expect the remaining game or two to be close too.
The Pistons have the edge in the series because they have gotten better as the series has gone on, gaining the playoff experience they lacked, while the Knicks have become banged up and gotten worse. The Knicks live and die with Jalen Brunson, who is playing with an injured ankle that is unlikely to heal fully before the series ends. Meanwhile, Ausar Thompson has learned how to guard Brunson more effectively with fewer fouls (Brunson will always draw some fouls, no matter who is guarding him); Jalen Duren is learning to be more effective on both ends. Cade continues to be Cade, one of the 15 best players in the league.
The Pistons made a key offensive adjustment in game 5, and I don’t think the Knicks have a counter to it. Earlier in the series, the Pistons ran most of their pick and rolls with Brunson’s man screening for Cade, in order to get Brunson on Cade. The problem with this action is that Thompson and Duren both go to the dunker’s spot, where they can be guarded by one player, negating the advantage that comes with the double team on Cade. In game five, Detroit went with the Duren/Cade pick-and-roll, their bread-and-butter throughout the season. This action resulted in Thompson alone in the dunker spot, with Brunson trying to guard two players on the weak side – Thompson in the dunkers spot and another Piston in the corner. When the double team came, Cade passed quickly to Duren, who had the option to drive himself, pass to Thompson for the dunk, or pass to a shooter at the three-point line. The Cade/Duren pick-and-roll was very successful, and I expect more of it tonight.
Several questions could determine the results tonight and in game seven, if we get one. How banged up is Brunson, and how well can he play? Will Isaiah Stewart – Detroit’s best matchup with KAT – come back and be able to play effectively? Can Detroit limit its turnovers or at least compensate for turnovers with its rebounding (as they have done so far in this series)? As I said, I think the games will be close and either team can win. But I like the Pistons’ chances, and I would rather be the Pistons than the Knicks in this series.
What are you seeing in the first round?